AI Could Boost Global Trade by 40% by 2040: What the WTO, ICC and MIT Are Saying

> In one sentence: the World Trade Organization, the International Chamber of Commerce and MIT converge on the same finding: AI is already transforming international trade, but the adoption gap — between large companies and SMEs, and between wealthy and emerging economies — is the real challenge of the coming years.

When the WTO Dedicates Its Flagship Report to AI

Every year, the World Trade Organization (WTO) publishes its World Trade Report, the reference document on the state and outlook of global trade, produced by the WTO Secretariat and closely followed by governments, central banks and trade organizations worldwide. In 2025, for the first time in its history, this flagship report is entirely dedicated to a single topic: artificial intelligence.

The title leaves no ambiguity: "Making Trade and AI Work Together to the Benefit of All". The report includes a dedicated chapter titled "AI, trade and inclusive growth" — a deliberate choice of words: the WTO doesn''t frame AI as a mere technical advance, but as a full economic policy topic, with implications for how gains are distributed between countries and between companies.

The headline figure made economic news worldwide: AI could boost global trade by nearly 40% by 2040 — provided that adoption gaps between countries and companies are closed. That last part of the sentence matters most for an SME: the potential is real, but it isn''t automatic. It depends on who adopts AI, how, and how fast.

The 2025 WTO–ICC Survey: What 158 Companies Actually Say

In December 2025, the WTO and the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) — the global organization representing more than 45 million businesses across over 100 countries — published the results of a joint survey of 158 companies of all sizes, sectors and regions, on their real-world use of AI in international trade activities. The stated goal: inform public policy and business practice with field data rather than theoretical projections.

The adoption figures speak for themselves:

• Nearly 50% of surveyed firms already use AI to support trade-related activities.
• Among them, close to 90% report a concrete benefit, broken down as follows: efficiency and productivity gains (22%), better decision-making (14%), an expanded export base (10%), and a wider range of traded products (17%).
• But the gap between countries is stark: 66% adoption in high-income economies, versus only 27% in low/lower-middle-income economies.
• Usage also differs by company size: large firms mainly use AI for regulatory compliance, while SMEs and micro-enterprises use it first for market intelligence and communication.

The survey also asked companies about their barriers. Two obstacles tie for first place: 14% cite difficulty accessing sufficiently high-quality data to train AI systems, and 14% cite a lack of internal AI expertise. On the regulatory front, a third of responses on cross-border AI-related challenges point to adapting to different data privacy requirements as the most significant issue.

This last point matters for what follows: what the WTO-ICC survey describes as the priority use case for SMEs — understanding a market, communicating in the right language, with the right arguments — is exactly Busony''s core focus.

MIT''s View: Empowering Growth, Not Replacing It

On the academic side, the Martin Trust Center for MIT Entrepreneurship — one of the world''s leading research hubs on entrepreneurship — published an in-depth analysis on AI''s role in supporting exporting SMEs: "Empowering SME Exporters with AI: Bending the Vector of Growth & Societal Impact".

MIT''s angle complements the WTO''s: it''s not just about measuring adoption, but understanding how AI changes the growth trajectory of exporting SMEs. The center emphasizes a key point: AI gives SMEs access to capabilities — continuous market research, demand forecasting, local offer personalization — that were previously reserved for large corporations with dedicated international teams in each target country. The analysis goes further, discussing a societal impact: by democratizing access to export markets, AI can help diversify the economic fabric of the regions where these SMEs operate, beyond the individual growth of any single company.

Export Credit Agencies Are Paying Attention: The Case of EDC (Canada)

Public export support institutions are also engaging with the topic. Export Development Canada (EDC), Canada''s federal export credit agency — a key player in financing and insuring Canadian export operations — published an analysis on generative AI and risk management in exporting.

The article details several concrete use cases: generative AI can quickly summarize complex foreign regulations, flag inconsistencies in customs compliance filings, continuously track changes in target markets, and speed up the detection of new business opportunities. For an SME with neither a dedicated legal nor customs department — the reality for the vast majority of exporting SMEs — these tools act as an on-demand specialized assistant, where costly external consultants were previously the only option.

In France, a Trade Observatory Studies Generative AI

The topic extends beyond North America. In France, the Observatoire du commerce (backed by organizations such as Imex and LOP Commerce) has published several study reports on the integration of generative AI in trade and export professions. These reports dedicate entire chapters to trade documentation, regulatory compliance and risk management — the same themes the WTO-ICC survey identifies as priorities for large companies, but approached here from the angle of training and equipping French sales teams.

This is a strong signal: the question of AI applied to export has moved beyond academic or international institutional circles alone to become a matter of national economic policy and ongoing professional training.

In the US, the Smith School at the University of Maryland has built a dedicated program — "AI for Small Business Exporters" — to give exporting SMEs practical tools for AI adoption: documentation compliance, logistics optimization, international pricing strategies, and automation of export-related administrative paperwork. This program illustrates a broader trend: academic institutions are no longer content to publish theoretical research — they''re building directly actionable educational tools for SME leaders.

Comparing the Institutional Sources

What This Actually Means for an SME Ready to Export

Put together, these institutional sources say the same thing from different angles: AI is no longer a futuristic topic for international trade, and the real risk isn''t AI itself but the adoption gap between those who act now and those who wait.

In practice, an SME can move forward in stages, without overhauling its organization overnight:

1. Step one — understand the market. Use AI to quickly analyze several potential target markets: demand size, existing competitors, keywords local buyers actually use. This is exactly the priority use case the WTO-ICC survey identifies for SMEs. 2. Step two — adapt the digital presence. Make the website, product pages and sales materials genuinely multilingual — not just translated, but adapted to local cultural codes and the arguments that actually convert. 3. Step three — automate the first line of contact. Deploy AI agents able to answer international prospects'' questions 24/7, in their language, and qualify leads before handing them to the sales team. 4. Step four — structure prospecting and market monitoring. Once the foundations are in place, integrate AI into active B2B prospecting, competitive tracking and regulatory monitoring — uses the WTO-ICC survey associates more with large companies, but which become accessible to SMEs through packaged solutions rather than dedicated in-house teams.

This is exactly the angle Busony builds its support around: giving exporting SMEs the means for an intelligent international presence — automated multilingual websites, international SEO & GEO, conversational AI agents, AI-augmented B2B prospecting — without needing the full export team only large companies can afford.

Conclusion

The WTO, the ICC, MIT, EDC, France''s Observatoire du commerce and the Smith School aren''t describing a marginal phenomenon: each from its own vantage point — international trade policy, academic research, export financing, professional training — they describe a transformation of international trade that''s already underway, with a quantified upside (+40% of global trade by 2040, according to the WTO) and a clearly identified risk: the adoption gap between those who act now and those who wait.

For an SME looking to grow internationally, the question is no longer "should we use AI?" but "how do we get started, step by step, without waiting until we have the resources of a large corporation?"

Ready to Structure Your Export Prospecting with AI?

Busony helps SMEs identify priority markets, adapt their digital presence, create multilingual content, deploy AI agents, and prospect internationally without multiplying headcount.

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Sources:

• WTO, World Trade Report 2025 — https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/wtr25_e.htm
• WTO, "AI to boost trade by nearly 40% by 2040" — https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news25_e/wtr_15sep25_e.htm
• ICC, "Adopting AI for Trade: Business Insights to Inform Policy and Practice" — https://iccwbo.org/news-publications/report/adopting-ai-for-trade-business-insights-to-inform-policy-and-practice/
• WTO, WTO-ICC survey announcement — https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news25_e/ecom_11dec25_240_e.htm
• MIT Martin Trust Center, "Empowering SME Exporters with AI" — https://entrepreneurship.mit.edu/empowering-sme-exporters-with-ai-bending-the-vector-of-growth-societal-impact/
• Export Development Canada, "Generative AI and risk management in exporting" — https://www.edc.ca/fr/article/ia-generative-et-gestion-des-risques-en-exportation.html
• Observatoire du commerce / Imex reports — https://www.lopcommerce.com/media/mt4h0hdx/rapport-d-etude-integration-iag.pdf
• Smith School, University of Maryland, "AI for Small Business Exporters" — https://www.rhsmith.umd.edu/centers-initiatives/global-business/programs/business/ai-small-business-exporters